Includes references. (74-75 p.)

' On September 11, 2001, the terrorist attacks against the USA have indicated that nowadays it has become extremely difficult to estimate what the enemy can do, who the enemy is, when the enemy will attack and how the enemy will attack. Moreover, this incident has induced the idea for the terrorist organizations that it was indeed possible to realize difficult activities thus have provided them with an adventurous courage. The date of September 11, 2001 stresses that an era in world history has ended and a new era has started. In the scope of this new order, USA President George W. Bush explains the pre-emptive strike (preventive war) strategy within the frame of the BUSH DOCTRINE called by his own name as follows: "wherever in the world, states have to take a decision. Are you with us or are you with the terrorists?" So, with the above explanation of the USA president, the threat concepts are from then regarded differently. As of September 11, a new threat concept much different from those during the Cold War Period is stressed. In fact, the "asymmetric threat" or "asymmetric war" concepts which recently became the popular are not newly produced or established concepts. During the history of mankind, there were many famous wars men and many famous strategists directing these wars. The "asymmetric war" concept came into existence almost 2,500 years ago and was put forward by the famous Chinese philosopher and war strategist Sun Tzu's book called "Art of War". Within the scope of the project, examples were provided from historical perspectives and Asymmetric Threat and Asymmetric War concepts are tried to explain. Under the sub-headings of Asymmetric War Concept, multi-dimensional threat percieval has been evaluated. In order to be able to perceive asymmetric war, it is necessary to clearly understand the meaning of terrorism. For this reason, the terrorism fact was significantly stressed within the scope of the project. Of course, while talking about terrorism it is absolutely necessary to talk about cyber-terrorism as well. The NBC (Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) weapons taking place within the Asymmetric War concept and the dimension of harm to be practiced on mankind in case these weapons are in the hands of terrorist organizations are evaluated. In case the nano-technology developed especially in recent years is in the hands of the terrorist organizations, the size of the danger that can be created against mankind can easily be understood. What is more, it is evaluated that in the following 20 years' period the biggest asymmetric threat should be from nano-terror and cyber-terror. Of course, while explaining these concepts, it was not entered into too much detail. In fact, almost all of them are a subject of a separate project, but were indeed helpful for the explanation of "asymmetric threat". Together with the changing threat perceival in parallel to the World Conjuncture, new strategies and defense techniques came to the agenda. Within the scope of this project, the asymmetric war concept is supported by information operation. If the importance of information nowadays is concerned, upon the consideration of the fact that it is not known from where and how the threat will come and that indefiniteness are abundant, the importance of fast and correct information in destroying the threat can be perceived better. In last part of the project, scenarios take place regarding the asymmetric threats and their dimensions to be expected by the Turkish Armed Forces in 2025's. The scenarios were developed by taking into consideration the developed nano-technology and cyber-terror techniques, supported by scientific data. In fact, the biggest asymmetric threat is the human brain and the limitless capacity of dream. '

1 INTRODUCTION

CHAPTER 1

ASYMMETRIC WAR

3 ART OF WAR

4 MULTI-DIRECTIONAL THREAT PERCEIVAL

5 EXPLANATION OF ASYMMETRIC WAR AND ASYMMETRIC THREAT CONCEPTS

18 ASYMMETRIC WAR

19 WAR

23 ASYMMETRIC WARS IN HISTORY

31 FIRST ASYMMETRIC EFFECT IN HISTORICAL SEA WARS

CHAPTER II

TERRORISM AND TERRORIST

39 REASON FOR TERRORISM

41 TERROR AND CRIMINOLOGY

41 ACTION METHODS OF TERROR

42 FINANCIAL SOURCES OF TERROR

42 FACTORS RENDERING DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM

43 INTERNATIONAL PENALTY LAWS FOR FIGHTING AGAINST TERRORISM

44 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GUERRILLAS AND TERRORISTS

45 EDUCATION OF TERRORISTS

46 ORGANIZATIONAL FUNCTIONING

47 PRECAUTIONS AGAINST TERRORISM

49 POLITICAL PRESSURE

49 ECONOMIC PRESSURE

50 MILITARY OPERATION

CHAPTER III

NUCLEAR TERROR

52 USAGE OF BIOLOGICAL WAR MATERIALS WITH THE OBJECT OF BIOTERRORISM

53 REASONS FOR INTEREST OF TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS FOR BIOLOGICAL WAR MATERIALS

55 VARIABILITY OF POTENTIAL TARGETS OF BIOTERRORISM

55 METHODS OF USAGE OF BIOLOGICAL WAR MATERIALS FOR BIOTERRORIST PURPOSES

56 REPLYING FOR BIOTERRORISM

CHAPTER IV

CYBER TERRORISM AND ITS ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS

59 GENERAL

63 TERRORISM FOR RENDERING INCOME

64 PROPAGANDA AND HARMFUL WEBSITES

65 STATE INFORMATION SECURITY AND ATTACKS AT STATE-DEPENDENT SYSTEMS

67 VIRAL ATTACKS, TROJANS

69 OTHER TYPES OF ATTACKS

70 ACTIVITIES CARRIED OUT BY TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS ON THE INTERNET

70 PROPAGANDA-EDUCATION

71 COMMUNICATION

72 DATA-COLLECTION

72 VIRTUAL ATTACK

73 COST OF INFORMATION CRIMES

76 NEW INFORMATION CRIMES CONCEPT AND ITS EFFECTS PUT FORTH BY SEPTEMBER 11,2001 TERRORIST ATTACK TOWARDS USA

CHAPTER V

NANO-TECHNOLOGY AND NANO-TERROR

84 NANO-TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN TURKEY

11 MAJOR ASYMMETRIC THREAT OF NOWADAYS : SEPTEMBER 11 TERRORIST ACTIVITY AND AL QAEDA

CONCLUSION

89 ASYMMETRIC THREAT SCENARIOS

89 SCENARIOS A

89 SCENARIOS B

90 SCENARIOS C

91 REFERENCES