STATISTICAL TREND ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING OF THREE CRITERIA AIR POLLUTIONS IN NICOSIA / CEDRIC -IRE OWURU

Yazar: Katkıda bulunan(lar):Dil: İngilizce 2021Tanım: 69 sheets; 30 cmİçerik türü:
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Ortam türü:
  • unmediated
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Konu(lar): Tez notu: Thesis (MSc.) - Cyprus International University. Institute of Graduate Studies and Research department of Environmental Sciences Özet: ABSTRACT In recent times air pollution level have been observed to be on an increase in urban regions and have proven to be a huge environmental and health burden. This have called for legislations and proper monitoring of their concentration through the use of air quality monitoring networks. In this study, a detailed trend analysis and prediction analysis was carried out on 3 different criteria pollutant Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), Ozone (O3) and Particulate matter (PM10). The dataset used was retrieved from the monitoring station at Nicosia. The trend analysis was done with the use of the Mann Kendall statistical test using a 5-year time series from the period of 2012 to 2016 and the prediction analysis was done using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast pollutant concentration over the course of five years from 2017 to 2021. The results obtained from the study indicated an existence of trend in all the pollutants with NO2 displaying an upward trend while O3 and PM10 displayed a downward trend. NO2 possessed a positive slope and tau value of 0.65 and 0.21, respectively indicating a positive drift in the values. O3 was seen to have a negative slope of -0.024 and a negative tau value of -0.22 indicating a negative drift in the values. PM10 had a negative slope of 0.063 and a negative tau value of -0.14. The result from the prediction analysis revealed that the best fit model for O3 and PM10 forecast was the ARIMA (3,1,0) model while the best fit for NO2 forecast was the ARIMA (2,1,0) model. The forecast for NO2 and O3 revealed an increase in level of annual average concentration of pollutants while PM10 indicated a decrease in annual average concentration. NO2 was seen to have a percentage increase of 64% at the end of the forecast, O3 had a percentage increase of 36.1% and PM10 had a percentage decrease of 30%. The study revealed that although no pollutant exceeded the permitted annual standard set at the end of both the trend analysis and forecast time, pollutants were observed to exceed daily limits. As such measure should be made to prevent this from becoming an environmental and health hazard.
Materyal türü: Thesis
Mevcut
Materyal türü Geçerli Kütüphane Koleksiyon Yer Numarası Durum Notlar İade tarihi Barkod Materyal Ayırtmaları
Thesis Thesis CIU LIBRARY Tez Koleksiyonu Tez Koleksiyonu YL 1901 O99 2021 (Rafa gözat(Aşağıda açılır)) Kullanılabilir Environmental Sciences Department T2125
Suppl. CD Suppl. CD CIU LIBRARY Görsel İşitsel YL 1901 O99 2021 (Rafa gözat(Aşağıda açılır)) Kullanılabilir Environmental Sciences Department CDT2125
Toplam ayırtılanlar: 0

Thesis (MSc.) - Cyprus International University. Institute of Graduate Studies and Research department of Environmental Sciences

Includes bibliogpraphy (sheets 58-64)

ABSTRACT
In recent times air pollution level have been observed to be on an increase in urban regions and have proven to be a huge environmental and health burden. This have called for legislations and proper monitoring of their concentration through the use of air quality monitoring networks.
In this study, a detailed trend analysis and prediction analysis was carried out on 3 different criteria pollutant Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), Ozone (O3) and Particulate matter (PM10). The dataset used was retrieved from the monitoring station at Nicosia. The trend analysis was done with the use of the Mann Kendall statistical test using a 5-year time series from the period of 2012 to 2016 and the prediction analysis was done using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast pollutant concentration over the course of five years from 2017 to 2021.
The results obtained from the study indicated an existence of trend in all the pollutants with NO2 displaying an upward trend while O3 and PM10 displayed a downward trend. NO2 possessed a positive slope and tau value of 0.65 and 0.21, respectively indicating a positive drift in the values. O3 was seen to have a negative slope of -0.024 and a negative tau value of -0.22 indicating a negative drift in the values. PM10 had a negative slope of 0.063 and a negative tau value of -0.14. The result from the prediction analysis revealed that the best fit model for O3 and PM10 forecast was the ARIMA (3,1,0) model while the best fit for NO2 forecast was the ARIMA (2,1,0) model. The forecast for NO2 and O3 revealed an increase in level of annual average concentration of pollutants while PM10 indicated a decrease in annual average concentration. NO2 was seen to have a percentage increase of 64% at the end of the forecast, O3 had a percentage increase of 36.1% and PM10 had a percentage decrease of 30%.
The study revealed that although no pollutant exceeded the permitted annual standard set at the end of both the trend analysis and forecast time, pollutants were observed to exceed daily limits. As such measure should be made to prevent this from becoming an environmental and health hazard.

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