Thesis (MSc) - Cyprus International University. Institute of Graduate Studies and Research Energy Systems Engineering Department

Includes bibliography (sheets 87-91)

ABSTRACT
The transition to a low-carbon energy system is crucial for mitigating climate change
and achieving global sustainability goals. This thesis examines the decarbonization
potential of five major economies and significant polluters, namely the United States,
China, Japan, Germany, and India, focusing on the assessment of two decarbonization
scenarios for global electricity generation. The primary objective is to evaluate the
feasibility and implications of achieving a high share of renewable energy by 2030 and
2050 in these countries.
The thesis presents a comparative analysis of the results obtained for each country,
exploring the CO2 emission reduction and total annual cost implications in 2030 and
2050. To conduct this analysis, the simulation software EnergyPLAN is utilized to
model and simulate energy systems in each country.
The results show that, for the two scenarios, each of the five countries considered in
the study will experience significant reduction in their CO2 emission levels in 2030
and 2050 compared to 2021. The countries will see their CO2 emissions reduce by up
to 81.1%, 85.14%, 77.21%. 81.66%, and 49.18%, respectively, in 2030. Similarly, the
CO2 emission reductions for each of the five countries listed earlier are 79.76%,
71.17%, 74.51%, 52.42%, and 39.05%, respectively, in 2050. The results also show
that the total annual cost form implementing the second scenario in which storage
systems are not designed for the excess electricity produced is reasonable compared to
the cost in 2021. For example, the cost for USA in 2021 is 367.5 billion USD, 307.1
billion USD in 2030, and in 2050, and 354.2 billion USD. The results from the
sensitivity analysis show that for an increase in capacity form 100 MW to 200 MW for
each of the major renewable energy systems (RES), the CO2 emissions will reduce for
all five countries. The total cost majorly reduces, or experiences a very slight increase,
for all the RES, except for the concentrated solar power system (CSP). The total cost
of the CSP shows a significant increase for all five countries due to its high installation
and maintenance costs.
The findings of this research contribute to the understanding of the decarbonization
potential of global electricity generation and provide valuable information for
policymakers, energy planners, and stakeholders involved in shaping sustain