The effects of global heating to geopolitics and geostrategies of Turkey
Alper Hüsemoğlu; Supervisor: Ercan Çitlioğlu
- Nicosia Cyprus International University 2007
- VII, 64 p. tab. 30.5 cm
CHAPTER 1 WHAT IS GLOBAL HEATING Definition of Global Heating 1 World Atmosphere 2 Greenhouse Effects and Global Heating 6 Causes of Global 9 CHAPTER II CURRENT EFFECTS OF GLOBAL HEATING Global and Regional Examples of Global Heating 12 Example from Countries 13 CHAPTER III ANTICIPATED EFFECT OF GLOBAL HEATING Probable Global Effects of Global Heating 15 Probable Regional Effects of Global Heating 16 Effects of Global Heating on Turkey 20 CHAPTER IV GLOBAL HEATING AND TURKEY Current Effects of Global Heating on Turkey 24 Anticipated Effects of Global Heating on Turkey 26 CHAPTER V EFFECTS OF GLOBAL HEATING ON TURKEY'S NATIONAL SECURITY Introduction 31 Effects of Global Heating to Global Security 32 Effects of Global Heating to Regional Security 38 Effects of Global Heating to National Security of Turkey 47 CHAPTER VI SOLUTIONS OF HEATING Kyoto Protocol 53 Turkish Policy 57 What Individual could do? 59 REFERENCES 62
' 200 years after the industrial revolution, there has not been any direct intervention by human activities to cause a change in climates. During this process, gases such as carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbon, methane and carbon monoxide, which spread deep into the upper layers of the atmosphere, caused problems such as thinning of the ozone layer and global heating. We can see the effects of global heating in our everyday life. Icebergs are melting at the poles and sea water levels are rising. Some regions suffer from droughts and have water problems. People are leaving this areas and animals are either will die or adopt themselves to drought conditions by undergoing physiological changes. People leaving in drought areas will move to areas of fertile land where there is water and this migration will bring along confrontation. Heavy rains and strong winds and floods will effect living conditions. Global heating will cause health problems, deaths and of course epidemic diseases. Effects of global heating are seen in many geographical regions in Turkey. According to NASA, Turkey will be under the effect of hot temperatures and suffer droughts in the year 2030, temperatures will rise 2- 3° C. Sea water level is expected to rise 30 cm in 2030 and 100 cm, between the years 2050 and 2100. With the rise in sea water levels coastal areas delta farm lines, seaside and yatch marines will be destroyed. The United Nations is trying to prevent climate changes through various activities. The international effort started with 1992 Rio summit and consolidated with Kyoto Protocol and developed countries are advised to limit the use of gases which cause destruction of the ozone layer. But the Protocol failed to be implemented because the United States, the biggest consumer of these types of gases, did not sign the Protocol. To sum up the Kyoto Protocol aimed to preventing climatic changes and its effects did not achieve its objective. Turkey, although accepted principles of Rio Summit to limit these gases, did not sign the protocol, fearing it will slow down its economic development. In 2001 Marrakesh Conference Turkey's membership was canceled but Turkey, if she want to join EU, signing the Kyoto Protocol will be a precondition before acceptance to full membership of European Union. Population of Middle East is increasing; water levels are dropping due to evaporation with intense heat. Israel, which occupied Golan Heights of Syria, and controls Jordan River and its deltas, does not intend to leave these areas in a foreseeable future. US efforts to establish a Kurdish state whether in the short run or in the long run in Northern Iraq will pave the way for Israel to control Mesopotamia and water sources in the region, will create security problems in the Middle East and Southern part of Turkey. The easiest way to control the area is the expansion of the Kurdish State in the Northern Iraq towards the North. The USA strategic needs foresee in the long run to expand Middle East geographical regions towards Middle Asia, and through the Eastern Anatolia towards Caucasia and change the geography of the Middle East. After the imposition of cultural rights of minorities by EU, the next step will be the formation of federal structures which will pave the way to the control of water resources without fighting. That is why the Eastern Anatolia is a very sensitive area. According to the scenarios, drown up by Inter-Governmental Climatic Changes Panel, in the year 2030 millions of people will be forced to take refuge in the other areas because of the environmental damage. Some island inhabitants will cease to exist as societies or with cultures. Heavy rains will lead to migration in some areas; climatic changes will force people to move from rural areas to urban areas. At the same time, climatic changes will cause collapse of infrastructures in urban areas, which will cause exodus from urban areas to rural areas. Refugee, migration, and famine problems in Turkey will deteriorate. Climatic changes will also create problems pertaining to national security. According scenarios, migration will trigger ethnic conflicts. Limitations will be imposed on consumption of water for entertainment purposes and for environmental use. National economies of some countries will undergo changes. Turkey in the light of these developments, concerning global heating, will have to abandon daily policies and adopt a long run policy, a proactive policy and take seriously threats of global heating. '
Global heating Küresel ısıtma Turkish policy Türk politikası